KC-X Debate May Endure Long After a Winner is Picked
Written by Douglas Royce
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The KC-X program is designed to provide the U.S. Air Force with a fleet of multirole tankers that can also provide the service’s Air Mobility Command with a substantial capacity for the long-range airlift of cargo, fuel and personnel when the aircraft are not needed for the aerial refueling mission. Unlike the existing fleet of elderly KC-135 tankers, which can carry only small cargo loads, the KC-X tankers will allow the service to free up capacity on the heavily tasked fleet of C-17A and C-5 Galaxy strategic transports.
The KC-45, offered by a team led by Northrop Grumman and based on the Airbus A330-200 airliner, is a larger aircraft than Boeing’s KC-767. It is capable of carrying substantially more cargo pallets, passengers and fuel—a major factor in its victory in the competition in 2008. The decision was later successfully protested by Boeing, and whether the Air Force would be better served by a smaller aircraft continues to be a matter of debate. However, at the recent Paris Air Show, Boeing indicated that it was looking into a range of options to give the USAF what it wanted, including new versions of its KC-767 and a new tanker variant of its 777 model civil airliner. Now all the Pentagon has to do is decide how large an aircraft it needs. Will it insist on the extra transport capacity provided by the KC-45 (or the notional KC-777), or will it consider both the KC-45 and KC-767 to have met program requirements and look instead to which bidder offers the lower-cost solution?
Both Boeing and Northrop Grumman have been reported at one time or another to be ready to drop out of the competition should either determine that a new request for proposals favors its competitor, a political nightmare in the wake of the botched competition last year. Should the service draft a proposal that favors an aircraft of the KC-45’s size, Boeing could well drop out of the competition and ignite a new round of pitchfork waving among its supporters in Congress. If the Pentagon instead drafts an RFP that favors either the KC-767 or a notional KC-777, European governments may complain bitterly of protectionism in the selection, a sensitive subject for the Pentagon leadership at a time when European nations are being relied upon to order large numbers of Lockheed Martin’s F-35 Lightning II fighters to keep the costs of the fighter program down.
Civilian officials at the Pentagon have had sourceselection authority over the KC-X competition since last year, and there has been no indication of when (or whether) Defense Secretary Robert Gates will return control over the selection to the Air Force leadership. There is no question that the Air Force needs to begin replacing its fleet of aged KC-135 tankers, and Congress is ready to provide the estimated $3 billion per year in funding necessary to build 12–18 aircraft a year. The primary obstacles facing the program today are political, and finding a way through this thicket will require all the political skills Defense Secretary Gates has developed during his long career in government service. ♦
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Douglas Royce is an analyst with Forecast International (www.forecastinternational.com), a leading provider of market intelligence and analysis in the areas of aerospace, defense, power systems and military electronics. To arrange an interview with Forecast International’s editors, please contact Ray Peterson, vice president, Research & Editorial Services (203) 426-0800, This e-mail address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it .